The Colorado State University team is predicting an above-average 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season with 18 named storms and a 72 percent chance one will make landfall somewhere along the entire Eastern seaboard.
Nine of those 18 named storms are expected to become hurricanes and four of those major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
The activity will be due primarily to anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic and expected lack of an El Nino event, the researchers said.
The hurricane forecast team’s probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil in 2013 are:
Entire U.S. coastline – 72 percent (average for last century is 52 percent)
U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida – 48 percent (average for last century is 31 percent)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 47 percent (average for last century is 30 percent)
Caribbean – 61 percent (average for last century is 42 percent)
The hurricane season falls between June 1 and Nov. 30.
Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and major hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts are listed on the forecast team’s Landfall Probability website at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane.
